Sunday, November 14, 2010
Puzzling Election Results
The very heavy defeat of the Democrats in the recent elections suggests several explanations: unpopular Democrats, strong Republican message, weak Democratic campaigning, dislike of President Obama, overexposed Democratic seats from the gains in 2006 and 2008, and the amorphous idea of "voter anger" (voters always seem angry, though). The election forecasting models put forth by political scientists this past year suggest the most important variable explaining the results is a generic ballot variable, where respondents indicate whether or not they'll vote for the Democratic or Republican congressional candidate, without a candidate's name placed before them. I struggle with what theory this variable connects back to about voting behavior, however. It's instead, to me, a tautology: I voted Democratic/Republican because I support them. This explanation seems devoid of content. I'll enjoy another cup of tea and ponder further.
The photo, by the way, has nothing to do with politics, unless we score another for the value of our public lands, because this beautiful arch is at the end of the Negro Bill Trail on Bureau of Land Management land just north of Moab, Utah.
Labels: Political Science
